Even though we’re seeing crisis after crisis on a daily basis, I want to take some time to discuss the midterms. After all, this Substack really is about helping people take actions that will enable Democrats to win elections.
Feel free to skip to the end of my rant below if you don’t want to hear me opine on the current state of things:
I’d be remiss if I didn’t reiterate that things are not great right now. Two things are abundantly clear to me:
Donald Trump is doing everything he can to distract from the Epstein Files;
Trump’s cronies realize that their days are numbered, so they better enact Project 2025 while they have a chance.
When I use the word “distract”, I don’t mean to imply that all the other crazy shit that he’s doing isn’t important - it is. But it’s abundantly clear to me and really anyone who is paying an ounce of attention that Trump is not only in the Epstein Files, he was an active participate in Epstein’s activities, and maybe worse. It seems reasonably likely that he’s a sex trafficker himself. Why this isn’t in the headlines nonstop for months and months is truly beyond me.
Saying that what’s going is a distraction is as if your house is being robbed, one of the robbers points a gun at you, and then your partner says “He’s just trying to distract you!” Perhaps this is technically true, but it doesn’t make the imminent threat to your life any less scary.
It still is stunning to me that while Trump is literally terrorizing an American city (and by the way, he is still doing this and you should absolutely not believe that he has “de-escalated” and the fact that the media does is just pathetic), he is also:
Running Venezuela? At the very least he stole half a billion dollars of Venezuelan oil, the proceeds from which are being kept in a slush fund run by Qatar.
Starting another trade war with Canada because Mark Carney gave a mean (honest) speech.
And this could go on and on - withholding grants, imprisoning journalists, raiding election offices, etc.
These are very serious issues and our media and leadership are utterly failing us.
Anyway, like I said, I wanted to focus on the long-game, but I guess I failed at that. Better late than never, I guess. Here we go:
END RANT / BEGIN OPTIMISM:
While the country is going to hell, the good news is that things are looking pretty great for Democrats in 2026. And yes, there will absolutely be elections, but how much destruction will Trump have wrought by then? We’ve got to fight on both fronts - continue to oppose him with protests and our community while also thinking about the upcoming elections.
Keeping in mind Dave’s First Axiom of Politics - “No one knows anything” - I am incredibly confident that we will be in a significantly Democrat-leaning environment in November. The question is just how Democratic will it be? Signs point to “very”. To wit:
Trump’s average approval rating is below 40%, and net approval under -18 points. This is historically low (and it’s trending down).
Generic ballot has Democrats up over 4 points and trending up.
Democrats won the Virginia Governorship by over 15 points, and the New Jersey Governorship by over 14. They won 64 out of 100 seats in the Virginia State House. This is a historic blue wave in Virginia.
Those are good signs, but things are getting really interesting when it comes to special elections.
Read this to see the scope of the wins that Democrats had in special elections in 2025. “Democrats, buoyed by Trump’s unpopularity and a fired-up base, flipped 21 percent of all the GOP-held seats that were on the ballot throughout 2025.”
Democrats are overperforming special elections by an average of about 13 points. In 2017-18, the most comparable cycle, it was 10 points.
Two recent special elections, which occurred post-Minneapolis invasion, and aren’t accounted for in the averages above, had stunning results:
On January 27th, Meg Luger-Nikolai won a special election in Minnesota by 91 points. The Republican only got 254 votes. In 2024 in this district the Democrat won by about 67 points. While Minnesota might be a special case, it’s awfully hard to overperform by this much when you’re in a heavily Democratic-district.
On January 30th (who has elections on a Saturday?!? Oh, Texas. Of course.), Democrats flipped a Texas state Senate district. Democrat Taylor Rehmet won in a district that Trump carried in 2024 by 17 points. But Rehmet didn’t eke out a victory - he won by 14! That’s a 31-point overperformance in a district that hasn’t elected a Democrat in decades.
I think it is important to note that Democrats have done this all without any sort of leadership. Schumer and Jeffries are weak and incompetent; Biden and Obama are quiet. Some governors have been stepping up - Newsom is loud; Pritzker is solid - but by and large these victories are due to the public’s wholly justified disgust with Republicans.
Now, I don’t know about you, but WHEN we take the House AND Senate, I want accountability and change. I’m tired of mealy-mouthed Democrats who refuse to stop the Republicans and Trump from shredding the Constitution. I want Senators who are willing to bring the Senate to a grinding halt until ICE stops murdering civilians and the President stops invading countries and stealing from all of us. I want Representatives who will impeach Trump again and again because he is blatantly violating the law and it’s their obligation. Frankly, this is the bare minimum.
If we assume that we’re going to be in an electoral environment that is heavily Democratic-leaning - perhaps by 10 or even 15 points - then the playing field changes dramatically.
Below is a good overview of the state of the Senate races.
One example of how you start thinking if we’re winning by 14 points in deep-red Texas districts, is that you shoot the moon and nominate Jasmine Crockett for Senate instead of the more moderate James Talarico. Opportunities likes this don’t come along very often - let’s elect a true, fighting progressive!
For what it’s worth, in the quest to oust Susan Collins in Maine, I think it’s best to stick with Janet Mills - not out of caution, but because it’s hard to endorse Graham Platner with his sketchy past.
Can we primary John Hickenlooper in Colorado? Progressive Julie Gonzales is going to give it a shot. Maybe Connor Burbridge can replace Jack Reed in Colorado. This is just at the Senate level - we have an historic opportunity that we can’t waste. The Democratic establishment has failed us. We need to take charge.
If you have a primary candidate you like, NOW is the time to support them. Volunteer. Donate early. Be like Elizabeth Warren, who knows that the sooner we build the infrastructure to run great campaigns everywhere, the more we’ll win.
Another important point: Because we are likely to win, we can start staking out positions now. Push our candidates to articulate what they will do when they take control and then hold them accountable to that. If they won’t - vote ‘em out!
Some organizations that I think are fighting the good fight:
Leaders We Deserve. Led by David Hogg, Parkland survivor who was ousted from the DNC, this organization is supporting young, exciting candidates.
Run For Something. This memo talks about how they’re planning for the really long game - 2030 and beyond.
Swing Left / Ground Truth / Vote Forward. Swing Left is trying to figure out how to make canvassing more effective. It’s absolutely the case that standard techniques are waning in their effectiveness, and I laud any organization trying to innovate here. Here’s a long but very interesting discussion about their philosophy. Vote Forward is a long-time favorite of mine and they are also working to innovate.
The midterm elections are 275 days away. The first set of primaries are ONE MONTH away. I know it’s hard to think about elections when our neighbors are getting kidnapped, but if we want to win we have to fight on multiple fronts. It’s time to get involved!